21st Century Initiatives: Policies & Investments
The declaration of the end of war and the formal withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is upon us. My concerns are about what happens next for the people of this famous and troubled land. I also wonder about how the Russians look back on their troubled stay in Afghanistan during the late 20th century.
Historical Perspectives
Archaeologists have found evidence of human habitation in Afghanistan from as far back as 50,000 BCE. In addition to having witnessed the peregrinations of the Indo-Iranian peoples between 3,000 to 4,000 years ago, Afghanistan has also been the meeting place for many of the great cultures of the Old World – Middle Eastern, Greek, Chinese, and Indian. It was, after all, a major hub on the Silk Road.
This land has been a part of many famous civilizations for over 3000 years. In that sense, it a land of destiny and it has played a central role in the pages of Asian civilizations and history across the millennia. About the size of Texas, it is a land with glaciated mountains and dry plains that does not take to strangers easily. Its people have been hardened by battles with occupying forces for over 2000 years. It is also a land with significant natural resources, and breathtaking landscapes.
Human Dimensions
Current estimates indicate Afghanistan is home to about 30 million people. Limited social contacts, a lack of educational opportunities, and harsh climatic conditions– frigid winters and hot summers make for a hard and isolated existence for many Afghani people. And now, with the unpredictable weather driven by climate change, add the impacts of devastating floods.
Considering that the average Afghani’s annual income is around $1000, we can understand how the proud people of this land, who lead frugal and sheltered lives, are susceptible to becoming the victims of misinformation campaigns and misdirection by interests vested in militaristic solutions.
What can we do, in the decade following US troop withdrawals in 2014, to restore a sense of self-direction and empowerment to the Afghani people who have been at the nexus of conflicts for over 2000 years?
Sustainable Development
What would happen if we, with support from the global community, were to provide humanitarian programs – in the form of education, food, and clothing related supplies– to the people of Afghanistan? The aid would last for at least a decade or two after the withdrawal of our troops. This initiative would represent a gesture of solidarity from the people of the United States, and those of our global partners, to the people of Afghanistan. Solidarity in the electronically connected and socially fragmented world of the 21st century.
From a technology perspective, investments in renewable power– e.g., solar powered (passive) thermal cookers which can prepare a meal unattended and photovoltaic PV modules to power cell phone communications and enable internet access– are low cost options that can have dramatic impacts for the residents of this picturesque land who live in small isolated communities.
There would be no major expectations other than that the nation would remain committed to sustained education for their people so that they become empowered to define their own destiny in the 21st century. The schooling opportunities would be diverse and open for all citizens, regardless of gender and age. Perhaps they would also be open to the idea of having an ongoing dialogue with non-governmental organizations that could provide technical and logistical support – like the World Health Organization (WHO), United Nations programs like Global Education First Initiative (GEFI) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Help the Afghan Children (HTAC), EU-Afghanistan, CARE, Afghan Women’s Mission , and others aimed at educating Afghan men .
This initiative would provide continued support for the empowerment of the people of Afghanistan while they engaged in the monumental task of forging a national identity and building a nation ready to take on the climate and weather related challenges of the 21st century. It would level the playing field with regard to basic human needs of education, food, health, shelter, and clothing.
I realize that this is a bold and perhaps even naïve proposal. After all, there is no manual of statecraft that advises nations on providing for the basic human rights and comforts – of food and clothing – needed to support the destiny of people once thought of as enemies. However, when I look at the initiative as a large scale sustainability implementation project, I see its’ understated potential for connecting the haves and the have-nots of this world.
Comparing Costs – Sustainable Development vs. War
Based on back-of-the-envelope calculations, I estimated the annual budget for this initiative at less than $30 billion. I developed this estimate by multiplying the population of Afghanistan by its annual per capita income. Over a decade, it will cost no more than $300 billion. Most probably, it will cost a lot less.
But $300 billion of expenses, during a period of economic recovery, sounds like a very large investment. However, it is not too expensive if we think of long term international security in this region. The United States will have spent over $750 billion in the 13 years it took to achieve its national security objectives in Afghanistan. And that effort also took the lives of thousands of brave soldiers and that of an even larger numbers came home injured, both physically and psychologically. These human costs of war are incalculable.
Is it reasonable to believe that this act of goodwill will lead to reciprocity by the people of Afghanistan? That it will reduce the likelihood of having another crisis of governance develop in Afghanistan during this century?
I think so. We are investing directly in the people of Afghanistan, in the future of the world in the 21st century. We are reinvesting in communication as the means to achieve optimal resource allocation, as we manage global scale challenges like climate change and unpredictable weather.
From a long-term and strategic perspective, statecraft trumps war craft, as the lessons of history teach us.
Sustainability & Resilience – 21st Century Policy + Investment Guidelines
Unsustainable operations are self-limiting. This proposal addresses the three factors needed for sustainable development. i.e., economic stability built on increased public education, reduced environmental impacts, and increased social equity. We have learned from work over the last few decades that all three dimensions must be addressed to implement long-term sustainable development.
A lot of foundational work and bridge-building will be needed to make this novel approach to 21st century statecraft work. Non-partisan networks and relationships will need to be developed with regional partners. These partnerships are needed to create the increased transparency that is essential for this initiative to succeed. Social media networks will help partners coordinate efforts more easily.
The regional partners and non-governmental organizations would provide the infrastructure, the technical, and the logistical support needed to make sure that the food and other provisions actually make it to the Afghani people and not to profiteers.
We would probably need to enlist the aid of the neighboring nations to monitor local developments and serve as reporters. On the positive side, the success of this initiative will help us develop a coordinated process for similar global scale projects in the future.
Looking Ahead
The people of the United States of America, and those of our partners around the world, have enough bright people with the big hearts needed to utilize the guidelines of sustainability to develop policies and guide investments in Afghanistan.