Is Climate Change for Real?
The warming effects of increased greenhouse gases will force a significant number of people to become homeless and sensitive populations to become increasingly ill during the next few decades. In addition, we can expect rising sea levels and unpredictable, turbulent weather, leading to floods in some areas and heat waves, drought, and wildfires in others. In addition, many species, both plant and animal, will either perish due to lack of habitat or have their health compromised and their long-term survival challenged. The writing on the sky, so to say, looms large.
For those of us living in industrialized nations, the writing on the wall is clear, in yet another sense. Our consumption of nonrenewable fuels and natural resources is 5-10 times larger, on a per capita basis, than those of people living in less developed areas of the world. We need to reduce our consumption over the next two to three decades, in an incremental and systematic fashion, to bring our footprint in line with others around the world.
We are challenged by the uncertainties and costs of uncontrolled climate change to become more conscious of our consumption and to acknowledge the externalities currently hidden in transactions involving natural resources. Perhaps it is also an opportunity for innovation.
Conspicuous Conservation – a 21st Century Model for Industrialized Nations
In addition to reducing our use of fossil fuels, we also need to consider our footprint with regard to another shrinking natural resource, fresh water. Global fresh water resources are shrinking and the recharge of ground water is not keeping up with demand. The lack of this critical natural resource, required for all life, is anticipated to result in new political tensions and create a new set of conflicts around the world.
The attached figure showcases two ways we can reduce our footprints on the natural resources of the Earth and on our shared environment. We can undertake a systematic and ambitious plan to decrease our consumption of natural resources, and the associated environmental impacts. By reducing consumption 5-10 % every year for the next twenty years, on a year over year basis, we can hope to reduce our demand for natural resources by 60 to 85% of current levels.
This ambitious program of natural resource conservation will bring our consumption down to a level that we can claim to have done our share in protecting the Commons, our shared natural resources, and the Earth.
Choices for the Conservation Minded Consumer
A second approach, of relevance to our consumption of retail goods, is to plan on doing away with the principle of planned obsolescence. Planned obsolescence was an early 20th century marketing breakthrough designed to stimulate the economy and to generate profit.
The current era of conspicuous consumption began sometime during the 1920s, just before the Depression, almost 90 years ago. The incandescent light bulb, a commonly used cartoon symbol of creativity and innovation, has an important role in this story.
It apparently took a lot of bright minds, working from the perspective of the need for increased sales, to reduce the life of a common household light bulb from over 5000 hours (around 1920) to the cartel specified standard of 1000 hours (by 1940). This unwritten “standard” has remained in force for almost a century.
More on this story, and other 20th century examples of deliberately planned obsolescence, can be found in a brilliant documentary about the negative effects of unthinking consumerism and planned obsolescence, titled Pyramids of Waste (2010). The movie also showcases “failure by design” principles found in modern inkjet printers to get them to stop working after a certain number of prints. Apple, the innovation leader, also has a role in this movie.
We obviously missed the costs of creating unnecessary post-consumer waste that is filling up our landfills. Think of the reduction in environmental and ecosystem impacts that could be achieved if our manufacturing sector designed products that lasted twice as long as they currently do.
Doubling the life of a retail product by 2X reduces its lifecycle impact or environmental footprint by half. If we can do it twice more, i.e., increase product life by 8X, we will have reached a level of consumption that is ~10% of where we are today. A 21st century sustainability target, if you will.
At the Zero Waste Alliance, I serve as a sustainability consultant with regard to manufacturing practices. As I see it, the educated consumer and the 21st century marketplace will direct manufacturers to consider these issues–
1. How quickly can we achieve the first of these breakthroughs? i.e., make a consumer product (e.g., running shoes) that lasts twice as long.
Can we do it in 5 years? Less?
2. How often can we repeat this pattern of innovation? i.e., make a product (e.g. an inkjet or a 3-D printer) that lasts 4 times or even 8 times longer than it does today.
Can we plan on an innovation cycle, somewhat like Moore’s law, that halves natural resource impacts associated with manufacturing every few years?
It is obvious that source reduction practices, enhanced by Corporate Social Responsibility(CSR) programs that include extended producer responsibility (EPR) and product stewardship strategies as standards for manufacturing, will play key roles in these campaigns.
A 21st century to look forward to…
Finally, what if manufacturers eliminated planned obsolescence by design? We would witness some of the most awe inspiring intellectual property and materials development cycles of the 21st century. Somewhat like the 20th century technology breakthroughs brought about by the development of quantum mechanics, almost a century ago.
Ultimately, change will be driven by the choices we make.